FUTURE SHOCK THE THIRD WAVE

BEYOND MASS PRODUCTION

 

Thus an eye-opening analysis of Pentagon spending by the number of end-products purchased came up with the finding I hat, out of $9.1 billion spent on goods for which the number of end items was identifiable, fully 78 percent ($7.1 billion) went for goods produced in lots of under 100 units!

Even in fields where components are still mass-produced in very large quantities—and in some highly advanced industries this is still the case—the components are usually configured to form many different end-products, each of which is in turn produced in short runs.

One need only look at the incredibly diverse vehicles whizzing down an Arizona highway to recognize how the once relatively uniform auto market has splintered into segments, forcing even those technological tyrannosaurs, the auto makers, to back grudgingly into partial customization. The car manufacturers in Europe, the United States, and Japan now mass-manufacture components and sub-assemblies, then plug them together in myriad ways.

At another level, note the humble T-shirt. The shirts are mass-made. But new, cheap fast-heat presses make it economical to imprint designs or slogans on very small batches. The result is a wild flowering of shirts facetiously identifying the wearer as a Beethoven fan, a beer drinker, or a porno star. Autos, T-shirts, and many other products represent a halfway stage between mass and de-massified manufacture.

The step beyond this, of course, is complete customization—the actual manufacture of one-of-a-kind products. And that is clearly the direction in which we are heading: products custom-cut for individual users.

According to Robert H. Anderson, head of the Information Services Department at the Rand Corporation, and an expert on advanced manufacturing: “It will be no harder in the near future to customproduce something . . . than it is to mass produce . . . today… We’rebeyond the modularization stage where you make a lot of modules and plug them together . . . and we’re getting on to the stage of just plain custom production. Just like clothes.”

The shift toward customization is perhaps best symbolized by a computer-based laser gun introduced a few years ago into the clothing.industry. Before the Second Wave brought mass production, if a man wanted a piece of clothing made he went to a tailor or a seamstress, or his wife sewed it. Tn any case, it was done on a handcraft basis, to his individual measure. All sewing was essentially custom tailoring.

 

 

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