FUTURE SHOCK THE THIRD WAVE

THE RISE OF THE PROSUMER

 

Seen this way, we can now say that during the First Wave, Sector A— based on production for use—was enormous, while Sector B was minimal. During the Second Wave the reverse was true. In fact, the production of goods and services for the market mushroomed to such an extent that Second Wave economists virtually forgot the existence of Sector A. The very word “economy” was defined to exclude all forms of work or production not intended for the market, and the prosumer became invisible.

This meant, for example, that all the unpaid work done by women in the home, all the cleaning, scrubbing, child-rearing, the community organizing, was contemptuously dismissed as “non-economic,” even though Sector B—the visible economy —could not have existed without the goods and services produced in Sector A—the invisible economy. If no one were at home minding the children there would be no next generation of paid workers for Sector B, and the system would fall of its own weight
Can anyone imagine a functional economy, let alone a highly productive one, without workers who, as children, have been toilet trained, taught to speak, and socialized into the culture? What would happen to the productivity of Sector B if the workers flowing into it lacked even these minimal skills? Though ignored by Second Wave economists, the fact is that the productivity of each sector depends heavily on the other.

Today, as Second Wave societies suffer their terminal crisis, politicians and experts still bandy about economic statistics based entirely on Sector B transactions. They worry about declining “growth” and “productivity.” Yet so long as they continue to think in Second Wave categories, so long as they ignore Sector A and regard it as outside the economy— and so long as the prosumer remains invisible—they will never be able to manage our economic affairs.

For if we look closely we find the beginnings of a fundamental shift in the relationship of these two sectors or forms of production to one another. We see a progressive blurring of the line that separates producer from consumer. We see the rising significance of the prosumer. And beyond that, we see an awesome change looming that will transform even the role of the market itself in our lives and in the world system.

All this takes us back to the millions of people who are beginning to perform for themselves services hitherto performed for them by doctors. For what these people are really doing is shifting some production from Sector B to Sector A, from the visible economy that the economists monitor to the phantom economy they have forgotten.

 

 

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