FUTURE SHOCK THE THIRD WAVE

GANDHI WITH SATELLITES

 

Is literacy, for example, an appropriate goal? If so, what does literacy mean? Does it mean both reading and writing? In a provocative paper for the Nevis Institute, a futures research center in Edinburgh, the eminent anthropologist Sir Edmund Leach has argued that reading is easier to learn and more useful than writing, and that not everyone needs to learn to write. Marshall McLuhan has spoken of a return to an oral culture more in keeping with many First Wave com* munities.Speech recognition technology opens incredible new vistas. New, extremely cheap communications “buttons” or tiny tape recorders built into simple agricultural equipment may ultimately be able to give oral instructions to illiterate farmers. In the light of these, even the definition of functional literacy requires fresh thinking.

Finally, the Third Wave encourages us to look behind conventional Second Wave assumptions with respect to motivation as well. Better nutrition is likely to raise the entire level of intelligence and functional competence among millions of children—at the same time that it increases drive and motivation.

Second Wave people often speak of the passivity and lack of motivation of, say, an Indian villager or a Colombian peasant. Leaving aside the demotivating effects of malnutrition, intestinal parasites, climate, and oppressive political control, might not a part of what seems like lack of motivation be an unwillingness to tear up one’s home, family, and life in the present in return for the dubious hope of a better life many years down the road? So long as “development” means the superimposition of a totally alien culture on an existing one, and so long as actual improvements seem impossibly beyond reach, there is every reason to hang on to the little one has.

Because many features of Third Wave civilization are consonant with those of First Wave civilization, whether in China or Iran, they imply the possibility of change with less, not more, disruption, pain, and future shock. And they therefore may strike at the roots of what we have called demotiva-tion.

And so, not merely in the fields of energy or technology, agriculture or economics, but in the very brain and behavior of the individual, the Third Wave brings the potential for revolutionary change.

 

 

348

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430

Leave a Reply