FUTURE SHOCK THE THIRD WAVE

THE THIRD WAVE

 

At the corporate level, we not only see efforts at internal decentralization (witness a recent meeting of 280 of General Motors’ top executives who spent two days talking about how to break up bureaucratic patterns and move more decisions out from the center), but also an actual geographical decentralization as well. Business Week reports a “geographical tilt of the U.S. economy, as more companies build plants and move offices to less readily accessible parts of the country.”

All this reflects, in part, a gigantic shift of information flows in society. We are, as noted earlier, undergoing a fundamental decentralization of communications, as the power of the central networks wanes. We are seeing a stunning proliferation of cable, cassette, computers, and private electronic mail systems, all pushing in the same decentralist direction.

It is not possible for a society to decentralize economic activity, communications, and many other crucial processes without also, sooner or later, being compelled to decentralize government decision- making as well.

All this demands more than cosmetic changes in existing political institutions. It implies massive battles over control of budgets, taxes, land, energy, and other resources. Decision division will not come easily—but it is absolutely unavoidable in country after overcentralized country.

So far we have looked at decision division as a way to break the bottleneck, to unfreeze the political system so it can function again. But there is far more here than greets the eye. For application of this principle does more than reduce the decision load of national governments. In a fundamental way, it changes the very structure of elites, bringing them into conformity with the needs of the emerging civilization.

THE EXPANDING ELITES

The concept of “decision load” is crucial to any understanding of democracy. All societies require a certain quantity and quality of political decisions in order to function. Indeed, each society has its own unique decision structure The more numerous, varied, frequent, and complex the decisions required to run it, the heavier its political “decision load.” And the way this load is shared fundamentally influences the level of democracy in society.

In preindustrial societies, where the division of labor was rudimentary and change was slow, the number of political oj administrative decisions actually required to keep things running was minimal. The decision load was small. A tiny, semi-educated,unspecialized ruling elite could more or less run things without help from below, carrying the entire decision load by itself.

 

 

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